AIDA Cruises will continue to grow significantly in the German market. (photo: Sergio Ferreira)While Royal Caribbean Cruises continues to build up its Royal Caribbean International brand, Carnival Corporation brands are on a more conservative course, with relatively minor changes for the foreseeable future, except for AIDA Cruises, that because of its newbuilding program, moves up in rank.

According to the 2013 Cruise Industry News Annual Report, this year, Royal Caribbean International has 67 percent of Royal Caribbean’s estimated passenger capacity; by 2021 the brand will have 70 percent of the capacity. Celebrity Cruises shrinks from 18 percent to 14 percent and Pullmantur from 9 percent to 7 percent.

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However, TUI goes from 3.5 percent to 6 percent; CDF from 1.5 percent to 2 percent; and Azamara stays relatively flat, going from 1 percent to less than 1 percent.

At Carnival, Carnival Cruise Lines will continue to be the dominant brand despite the company’s global growth, although shrinking slightly in terms of market share, while AIDA Cruises grows significantly in the German market.

In 2013, Carnival Cruise Lines has an estimated 41 percent of Carnival Corporation’s capacity and will have nearly 39 percent by 2021. Costa Crociere and Princess Cruises trade places, with Costa now being the second largest brand, having 15 percent of the group’s capacity in 2013, and Princess just below 15 percent, while by 20121, Princess will have 15.5 percent and Costa stays at 15 percent.

Holland America Line is the fourth largest brand this year with 9 percent, but as AIDA Cruises continues to build, Holland drops to fifth place by 2012 with 8.5 percent, and AIDA moves up from 8.5 percent to 11 percent.

Altogether Carnival’s North American-based brands have 65.5 percent of the company’s estimated passenger capacity this year, compared to 63.0 percent by 2021.

For Royal Caribbean, its North American based brands have 86 percent of the company’s estimated passenger capacity in 2014 and 85 percent by 2021. The biggest change in Europe will be TUI, in which Royal Caribbean holds a 50 percent, which will more than double its capacity in the German market.