DNV Forecast to 2050 Report Calls for Cross-Industry Cooperation

Presenters at Maritime Forecast to 2050 press conference in Hamburg, 5 September 2022 (L to R): Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen (CEO Maritime, DNV), Eirik Ovrum (Principal Consultant & Report Author), Remi Eriksen (CEO, DNV

The latest "Forecast to 2050" report from DNV Maritime, which focuses on fuel availability, sustainable solutions, and collaboration among various industries, has been released earlier this week, according to a press release.

This year's publication specifically considers the total infrastructure required for the maritime industry's transition to carbon-neutral fuels, including production, distribution, and bunkering infrastructure, according to DNV.

“No industry can decarbonize in isolation so global industries need to make the right choices together, and sustainable energy should be directed to where it has the biggest impact on reducing GHG emissions. The ultimate hurdle is fuel availability and to overcome it, supply chains must be built through cross-industry alliances," said Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, chief executive officer, DNV Maritime.

The report provides an updated outlook on decarbonizing shipping regulations, drivers, future technologies, and costs. It simulates two decarbonization scenarios: “Current IMO ambitions to 2050” and “Full Decarbonization by 2050”. According to DNV's modeling, the future energy mix will be diverse, including both fossil and carbon-neutral fuels, with fossil fuels gradually pushed out by 2050.

“Carbon-neutral fuels must be made available for ships already within this decade, in decarbonization pathways assessed. By no later than 2030, 5% of the energy for shipping should come from carbon-neutral fuels. This will require substantial investments in both onboard technologies and onshore infrastructure,” Ørbeck-Nilssen added.

Coordination of plans by all stakeholders is critical, and public incentives must be provided to encourage early adopters to participate in a nascent global network of green shipping corridors, DNV notes in this year’s report.

The company notes that a clear winner among the many fuel options, ammonia, methanol, diesel, or methane produced from sustainable biomass, renewable electricity, or fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage, cannot be identified at this time due to uncertainties surrounding future price and availability.

“We probe variations on three fuel families in which we simulate the availability of sustainable biomass to produce biofuels, renewable electricity to produce e-fuels, and fossil fuels in combination with carbon capture and storage (CCS) to produce blue fuels.

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