If the cruise industry grows according to the building rate of ships now on the order books, projected demand could outpace supply by 1995.

The supply of berths for the North American market will grow at an estimated annual rate of 7.15 percent though 1992 compared to market demand which the industry estimates will grow at annual rate of 11 percent. With a present overcapacity of berths estimated by various industry sources to be from 20 percent to 30 percent, demand could exceed supply within a five-year period.

Maximum Growth

However, there is an another maximum growth supply scenario based on ships which are not contracted, but which, according to industry sources, are likely to be built. This scenario would provide an average annual growth rate of supply of about 13 percent, which, if it materializes, would maintain an industrywide overcapacity between 20 and 30 percent.

According to this scenario, 148,867 berths would be offered in the North American market by the end of 1993.